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Modality in Retrospect: Should Have, Could Have, Might Have

Should / ought to have + V3 can evaluate the desired or expected completion of an action: they can express criticism, regret, or an assumption that something was expected to have happened by then. In criticism, the context often shows that the action was not completed; the form itself does not always mean that it was not completed.

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Should have / ought to have: criticism, regret, and expectations about the past

1. The right action that did not happen

Should have + V3 can evaluate an earlier action as appropriate or desirable. In a context of criticism or regret, it usually suggests that the action was not done. However, the form itself does not prove this: it can also express an expectation, and whether the action was completed may be unknown.

In the context of a missed call, You should have called naturally means “you were supposed to call, but you did not call.” This conclusion comes from the use of the form in context, not from an obligatory negation built into every use of should have.

Compare: “You should call” is advice for the future, while there is still time; “You should have called” states that the moment has passed. In English, these meanings are distinguished reliably by the form have + V3.

How to build it

should have / ought to have + V3; V3 = the third form of the verb (called, gone, written)

verb / V
—
A word for an action or state, such as work or be. The pattern determines its form.
V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.

You should have called the client before the deadline passed.

You should have called the client before the deadline passed.

The call did not happen; the speaker thinks it was necessary.

I should have taken the earlier train.

I should have taken the earlier train.

I did not take the earlier train; this expresses regret about my own choice.

The committee ought to have consulted the tenants.

The committee ought to have consulted the tenants.

A more formal tone; the consultation did not happen.

2. Criticism and regret: whose action are we evaluating

You / she should have… often criticizes someone else’s choice, while I should have… often expresses regret or self-criticism. However, the subject alone does not determine the speech act: I should have finished by now can report an expectation, and an evaluation of someone else’s action can be sympathetic.

We should have asked can express shared regret or criticism of a group. We changes the group considered responsible; it sometimes softens the tone, but it does not guarantee politeness and is not always an exact substitute for you.

Perhaps and with hindsight can soften an evaluation, but they do not automatically make it calm or neutral. The tone depends on intonation, the relationship between the speakers, and the content.

She should have checked the figures before presenting them.

She should have checked the figures before presenting them.

Criticism of a third person.

I should have checked the figures myself.

I should have checked the figures myself.

The same form, but the speaker is evaluating themself: this is regret.

Perhaps we ought to have asked more questions at the start.

Perhaps we ought to have asked more questions at the start.

The opening perhaps and the pronoun we soften the evaluation.

3. Ought to have: a more formal option and its forms

Ought to have expresses the same meaning as should have, but it sounds more formal and occurs more often in written evaluations, such as reports, decisions, and official findings. In conversation, should have is more common, while ought to have is appropriate when the speaker wants to emphasize an objective obligation.

Unlike should, ought requires to: ought to have + V3. Negative forms are ought not to have or, more conversationally, oughtn't to have. Questions with ought in the past sound very formal, so should is usually used instead: “Should we have informed them?”. Ought is less common in American English.

In rapid speech, people say should've, ought to've, and shouldn't've. In writing, these correspond to should have, ought to have, and shouldn't have. Should of is a common spelling based on what is heard; avoid it.

The auditors ought to have queried the discrepancy in March.

The auditors ought to have queried the discrepancy in March.

Report style: ought to have + V3.

Residents oughtn't to have been left without heating for a week.

Residents oughtn't to have been left without heating for a week.

Negative ought with the passive: the action happened and was inappropriate.

We should've left at six.

We should've left at six.

Conversational contraction; in formal writing, write should have.

4. Shouldn't have: when the action happened

In a regret reading, the affirmative form usually evaluates an action that was not taken, while the negative form evaluates an undesirable action that was taken: You shouldn’t have shouted. However, in a different context, shouldn’t have can express an expectation that the action did not happen. Do not infer the actual result from the negative form alone.

The criticism concerns the choice: the action was wrong, harmful, or inappropriate. Options include shouldn't have, should not have (more formal), and ought not to have; for emphasis, use should never have: “We should never have signed it”.

Needn’t have + V3 usually means that the action was done unnecessarily. It can also express criticism or grateful reassurance such as “you needn’t have gone to so much trouble.” The basic difference is that shouldn’t have evaluates whether the action was appropriate, while needn’t have evaluates whether it was necessary.

You shouldn't have forwarded that email to the whole department.

You shouldn't have forwarded that email to the whole department.

The email was forwarded; the speaker considers this a mistake.

They ought not to have released the figures before the family was told.

They ought not to have released the figures before the family was told.

A more formal negative form; the figures were released.

We should never have signed that contract.

We should never have signed that contract.

Never intensifies the regret; the contract was signed.

5. Form: V3, been V-ing, and the passive

The third form of the verb follows have: should have gone, should have written, should have known. Two common mistakes are using the Past Simple after have (should have went) and using should of instead of should have.

For an action that was continuing at a particular moment in the past, use should have been + V-ing: “He should have been watching the gauge”. The criticism concerns the process, not the result.

In the passive, the subject identifies the person or thing affected by the action: the windows should have been sealed. The agent can be left unnamed or added with by. The passive does not guarantee impersonal criticism: the responsible person may be clear from the context.

How to build it

should have been + V-ing (verb with -ing): process · should have been + V3 (third form): passive

verb / V
—
A word for an action or state, such as work or be. The pattern determines its form.
V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.
V-ing / -ing
—
The verb form ending in -ing: working, going. Its role depends on the construction.

He should have been watching the gauge, not his phone.

He should have been watching the gauge, not his phone.

Should have been + V-ing: we criticize an ongoing action at that moment.

The windows should have been sealed before winter.

The windows should have been sealed before winter.

Passive: the agent is not named, so the criticism is impersonal.

She ought to have gone to the doctor sooner.

She ought to have gone to the doctor sooner.

Gone is the third form of go; went would be incorrect here.

6. Expectations: when this is not criticism

Should have can express an expected completion: The parcel should have arrived by now. This may be a neutral assumption, or, in the context of a delay, also a complaint. By now, by Friday, and already help establish the reference point; by Friday can also refer to a future deadline.

An expectation by itself does not say whether the action happened. We need to find out whether the parcel arrived. If it did not arrive, the speaker may simply report the fact or may also be criticizing the delivery service; the grammatical form does not rule out the second intention.

Note: a confident conclusion from evidence is expressed by must have, while an unrealized possibility is expressed by could have. These are neighboring topics. Should have expresses a norm, an obligation, or an expectation.

The courier should have delivered it on Monday; it still hasn't come.

The courier should have delivered it on Monday; it still hasn't come.

This can be read as an expectation based on the schedule; depending on the tone, it can also be a complaint about the courier.

The final results should have been posted by now.

The final results should have been posted by now.

By now signals an expectation based on the schedule.

7. Short answers, questions, softening, and idioms

In conversation, the verb is often omitted while the modal with have remains: “Did you lock up? — No, I should have.” Keep should have: should alone in a past context would be understood as an evaluation concerning the future.

The question “Should we have consulted a lawyer first?” asks whether that step would have been the right one, so it evaluates a decision that was made. The rhetorical question “Shouldn't you have checked?” is indirect criticism. Openers such as perhaps, I think, and with hindsight create restraint, while the modal form itself does not change.

Set phrases include should have known better (than to…) — “you should have understood that it was not acceptable,” and should have thought of — “you should have considered.” They most often have a self-critical nuance.

Did you lock up? — No, I should have.

Did you lock up? — No, I should have.

The verb is omitted, but have remains.

Shouldn't you have checked the forecast first?

Shouldn't you have checked the forecast first?

A question with an implied criticism.

You should have known better than to reply to him in anger.

You should have known better than to reply to him in anger.

The idiom should have known better than to…

8. Nearby forms: could have and must have

Should have places the action within the world of norms: it was the right thing to do. Could have only opens up a possibility: “You could have called.” Must have draws a conclusion from evidence: “Someone must have called.” Both are separate topics; they are included here only to distinguish them.

Must have expresses a conclusion, but a sentence with it can also criticize someone. Could have does not describe the action as obligatory, although You could have told me! can sound very sharp. Do not place these forms on a fixed scale of criticism strength.

In this topic, choose according to meaning: the right action — should/ought to have; an incorrect action — shouldn't have; a conclusion from evidence and an open possibility remain neighboring topics.

You should have told me about the leak.

You should have told me about the leak.

Norm: this was the necessary step.

You could have told me about the leak.

You could have told me about the leak.

In a critical context, the form identifies an unused opportunity; the strength of the criticism depends on the tone and context.

You must have noticed the leak.

You must have noticed the leak.

Must have expresses a conclusion that the leak was noticed; whether there is also criticism depends on the context.

Common mistakes

Incorrect:You should of told me about the delay.

Correct:You should have told me about the delay.

Of here is a spelling based on the sound of the contraction 've. Have is required after a modal.

Incorrect:She should have went home earlier.

Correct:She should have gone home earlier.

The third form is required after have: gone, not the Past Simple went.

Incorrect:He should had called her yesterday.

Correct:He should have called her yesterday.

Do not use had after a modal verb: the past is expressed by have + V3.

Incorrect:You ought to told him the truth.

Correct:You ought to have told him the truth.

For the past after ought to, use have + V3: ought to have told. Without have, the sentence is ungrammatical.

Incorrect:The data should have store securely.

Correct:The data should have been stored securely.

Here, the data are the object of storage, so the passive have been stored is required. The reason is the subject’s role, not simply the absence of a named agent.

Sources

Could have / might have: unrealised possibilities and past speculation

1. One form, two readings

In this lesson, could/might + have + past participle concerns the past but does not itself say whether the event happened. In one main reading, a possibility existed but was not realised: the speaker or listener knows the actual outcome. In the other, the speaker lacks the facts and speculates about what may have happened.

Both meanings present an event as possible rather than established. What is known about the outcome makes the difference. A known contrary outcome gives an unrealised possibility; an unknown outcome gives speculation.

Always ask what the context establishes about the result. The modal chain alone does not determine it.

How to build it

Could / might + have + past participle, such as gone, taken or left.

V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.

The expedition could have reached the summit by noon, but a whiteout turned it back at the second camp.

The expedition could have reached the summit by noon, but a whiteout turned it back at the second camp.

An unrealised possibility: the but-clause establishes that the summit was not reached.

Someone might have left the gate open; the dog is in the neighbour's garden.

Someone might have left the gate open; the dog is in the neighbour's garden.

Speculation: the speaker sees a consequence but does not know its cause.

The firm could have been sold to a rival in 2015, though the founders refused every offer.

The firm could have been sold to a rival in 2015, though the founders refused every offer.

Passive with an unrealised reading: could have been sold; the sale did not happen.

2. Unrealised possibility: signals that it did not happen

Three kinds of contextual signals commonly establish an unrealised reading. A contrast with but, yet, instead or though can identify a different outcome. An unreal condition can use past perfect (if she had been willing) or inversion (had the dam held). An assessment such as Luckily, Fortunately or a lucky escape can establish that a danger was avoided.

In an account of an avoided danger, She could have been killed describes an unrealised possibility. Without that context, the same form can speculate about an unknown fate. Passive voice focuses on a potential receiver of the event; it does not itself guarantee formal register.

Could have and might have naturally express unrealised possibilities. Could can highlight an available opportunity or ability, while might presents a possible result, without a fixed probability scale between them. May have normally suggests speculation about what might actually have happened, so could / might have better suits an explicitly unrealised alternative.

How to build it

Contrast / unreal had-condition / avoided-danger assessment → unrealised reading.

Without the early warning, the whole valley could have been flooded.

Without the early warning, the whole valley could have been flooded.

Without establishes an alternative scenario. The normal reading is that the warning helped prevent flooding of the whole valley; it does not exclude partial flooding.

She might have made partner at thirty-five, but she preferred to teach.

She might have made partner at thirty-five, but she preferred to teach.

But identifies the choice made instead.

The negotiators could have walked out at any point; they chose to stay at the table.

The negotiators could have walked out at any point; they chose to stay at the table.

The second clause states what happened instead.

Luckily the cable held. It could have snapped under the load.

Luckily the cable held. It could have snapped under the load.

A near miss: Luckily and the first stated fact establish that the cable did not snap.

3. Past speculation: when the facts are unknown

In the second reading, the speaker does not assert what happened. They give a possible explanation for a known result: an open gate, an undelivered letter or a late train. Might have, could have and may have are natural here; may have can sound slightly more formal.

Signals include I don’t know, nobody has confirmed, we are still checking, or a consequence whose cause is unknown. Several hypotheses can be useful: The pump might have jammed, or the valve could have been left open.

Do not confuse speculation with confidence. English has other constructions for strong past deductions, covered in separate lessons.

How to build it

Unknown facts → might / could / may + have + past participle.

V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.

The minutes don't mention a vote, so the chair may have decided alone.

The minutes don't mention a vote, so the chair may have decided alone.

May have gives a more formal supposition based on the absence of a recorded vote.

Her flight might have been diverted; I'll check the arrivals board.

Her flight might have been diverted; I'll check the arrivals board.

Passive speculation; checking is still to come.

The archive could have been moved to the annexe before the flood, though nobody can confirm it.

The archive could have been moved to the annexe before the flood, though nobody can confirm it.

The explicit lack of confirmation establishes speculation.

4. Read context rather than form alone

The same sentence can have either reading. She could have warned them is ambiguous in isolation. But she said nothing establishes an unrealised possibility. A continuation about their hasty departure can instead suggest speculation that she may have warned them.

Surrounding words therefore matter in exercises and real use. A listener can ask for clarification or wait for it. In writing, another sentence can explicitly establish what is known about the outcome.

Try adding but… with a contrary fact, or I don’t know whether… acknowledging uncertainty. The continuation that fits the context identifies the reading.

How to build it

… but + contrary fact → unrealised; … I don’t know whether → speculation.

She could have warned them, but she said nothing.

She could have warned them, but she said nothing.

The but contrast establishes an unrealised reading.

Nobody knows who tipped them off. She could have warned them; she had their number.

Nobody knows who tipped them off. She could have warned them; she had their number.

Speculation: the first sentence explicitly leaves the warning’s source unknown.

5. Form: passive, continuous, questions and negatives

After have, use a past participle: could have won, might have been delayed. Could’ve and might’ve are common contractions. Could of arises from the similar sound, but of is not an auxiliary.

Passive: could/might have been + past participle, as in could have been avoided. Continuous: might have been waiting describes a possible past process. A could question uses inversion: Could the crew have reached the hut before dark? Questions with might are less common and more formal.

Might not have seen means it is possible someone did not see. Couldn’t have seen normally describes impossibility rather than mere uncertainty. Do not transfer the negative meaning automatically from might to could.

How to build it

Have + past participle: earlier action · have been + past participle: passive · have been + verb-ing: process.

verb / V
—
A word for an action or state, such as work or be. The pattern determines its form.
V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.
V-ing / -ing
—
The verb form ending in -ing: working, going. Its role depends on the construction.

The scandal could've been contained.

The scandal could've been contained.

Could’ve is common in conversation and informal writing; formal prose uses could have been.

The tide might have been rising while we crossed.

The tide might have been rising while we crossed.

Continuous describes a process that may have been happening in the past.

He might not have seen the notice; it was hidden behind the door.

He might not have seen the notice; it was hidden behind the door.

Negation follows might; this is speculation that he possibly did not see the notice.

6. Could have or managed to: possible versus achieved

Could have + past participle alone does not assert an achieved result. Managed to, was/were able to or past simple naturally reports that an action actually happened. Context can also confirm that a possibility was realised, so saying could have never concerns something that happened would be too absolute.

The contrast distinguishes an available choice from an achievement: “we had the opportunity” versus “we succeeded”. A translation into another language can blur this distinction, so check the context.

Would have + past participle describes the result of an unreal condition and belongs to conditional patterns; could/might foregrounds possibility.

Although the lift had stalled twice, the engineers managed to restart it.

Although the lift had stalled twice, the engineers managed to restart it.

An achieved result: managed to.

The engineers could have restarted it, but they waited for the manufacturer.

The engineers could have restarted it, but they waited for the manufacturer.

An unrealised possibility: the lift was not restarted in this account.

When the power returned, the team was able to restore the archive overnight.

When the power returned, the team was able to restore the archive overnight.

An achieved one-off action: was able to.

7. Scope, register and related patterns

This topic does not focus on reproach or regret with should have / ought to have, or strong deductions with must have / can’t have. Those have separate lessons. You could have called can border on criticism, but here it is treated as an unrealised possibility.

Passive and impersonal forms fit professional and academic writing; contractions fit conversation. Add a detail explaining why an opportunity was not realised when useful, since an isolated sentence can be misread.

Past perfect in a condition does not force could have in every result. A past result uses could have + past participle; a present result can use a mixed conditional: If we had saved more, we could buy a car now.

How to build it

Could / might have + past participle ≠ managed to · ≠ must have · ≠ should have.

V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.

The regulator could have imposed a fine, but it chose to issue a warning.

The regulator could have imposed a fine, but it chose to issue a warning.

Formal register describing an unrealised alternative.

The courier must have misread the address.

The courier must have misread the address.

A related topic: a confident deduction, outside the target practice.

You should have called the client yesterday.

You should have called the client yesterday.

A related topic: reproach, outside the target practice.

Common mistakes

Incorrect:She could of won the final if she hadn't tripped.

Correct:She could have won the final if she hadn't tripped.

Could of comes from the sound of could’ve; use auxiliary have after could.

Incorrect:The harbour pilot could have dock the ship safely if the tide had been higher.

Correct:The harbour pilot could have docked the ship safely if the tide had been higher.

After have, use past participle docked. Could + base form can describe a present result of a past condition, but this context describes a possible past docking.

Incorrect:The outage could have been avert by better planning.

Correct:The outage could have been averted by better planning.

In the passive after been, use past participle averted.

Incorrect:They could had avoided the fine.

Correct:They could have avoided the fine.

After a modal, use have rather than had.

Incorrect:She might have being late.

Correct:She might have been late.

After have, be takes past participle been rather than being.

Sources

Must have / can't have: deduction about the past

1. A deduction from evidence, not a memory

In its deductive meaning, must have + the past participle presents an earlier event as an explanation for signs or information. The signs may be seen now, known from earlier, or described in the context. The speaker may have witnessed part of the events and deduce another part.

Must have expresses strong confidence but does not guarantee that the conclusion is true. A directly known fact is often simply reported in the past tense. However, a witness can also use must have, for example when reconstructing circumstances from incomplete memory; there is no rule that a witness cannot say it.

How to build it

signs or information → must have + V3; V3 = the past participle

V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.

The kitchen smells of toast, so somebody must have been up before us.

The kitchen smells of toast, so somebody must have been up before us.

The smell is present evidence; the deduction concerns the past.

The tide has already covered the footprints; the boat must have left hours ago.

The tide has already covered the footprints; the boat must have left hours ago.

The speaker offers a deduction based on the footprints and the tide; the sentence does not describe all the speaker’s sources of information or prove the conclusion.

2. Form: from have + V3 to the passive and continuous

After must / can’t, have is required, followed by the past participle: must have gone. Has, had, and of are not suitable here. Must’ve is possible in speech and informal writing; formal writing usually uses the full form must have.

The pattern can be extended: have been + -ing shows an action that continued; have been + the past participle forms the passive. An adverb can go between the modal and have (must surely have gone) or after have (must have already gone); both positions are common.

How to build it

must / can’t + have + V3 · have been + V-ing (the -ing form): process · have been + V3: passive

verb / V
—
A word for an action or state, such as work or be. The pattern determines its form.
V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.
V-ing / -ing
—
The verb form ending in -ing: working, going. Its role depends on the construction.

The hinges must have rusted years ago.

The hinges must have rusted many years ago.

Simple form: the event has already been completed.

The neighbours must have been arguing again; I could hear raised voices.

The neighbours must have been arguing again: I could hear raised voices.

The perfect continuous form emphasizes the process.

The bridge can't have been repaired this summer; the cones are still there.

The bridge can't have been repaired this summer: the cones are still there.

Passive: the subject does not perform the action but undergoes it.

3. Can't have: negative deduction

The negative counterpart of must have in its deductive meaning is can't have + the past participle. This is not a negation of the modal verb but the speaker’s belief that the event did not happen. Couldn't have and cannot have also exist as formal alternatives; the difference in strength is minimal, while cannot sounds more formal.

The form must not have is sometimes used for a deduction, especially in American English, but can't have remains the standard negative deduction; this is the form, along with couldn't and cannot, that we practise.

How to build it

can't / couldn't + have + V3

V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.

The alarm can't have gone off; the siren was unplugged all week.

The alarm can't have gone off: the siren was unplugged all week.

The speaker considers the unplugged siren a reason to rule out the alarm going off; the reliability of the deduction depends on how the alarm system works.

She couldn't have known; nobody told her about the change.

She couldn't have known: nobody told her about the change.

Couldn't have also expresses an almost certain negative conclusion.

4. Must as a requirement and must as a deduction

Must + the base form can express a requirement (must wear badges) or a deduction (must be tired). An ordinary past requirement is expressed with had to. Must have + V3 is often a deduction, but it can also set a requirement for prior completion: Applicants must have completed the course — the course must already be completed.

Check whether the speaker is stating a rule or explaining an event on the basis of available signs. The form have + V3 alone does not resolve this question: context is important. In this lesson, the main focus is the deductive interpretation.

How to build it

must + base form: requirement or deduction · had to + base form: past requirement · must have + V3: deduction or requirement for prior completion

V1 / base form
—
The base verb without to: work, go, be.
V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.

Staff must wear badges at all times.

Staff must wear badges at all times.

Requirement: a present rule.

Staff had to wear badges last year.

Staff had to wear badges last year.

A past requirement uses had to, not must have.

The guard must have recognised him; he nodded and let him through.

The guard must have recognised him: he nodded and let him through.

This is a deduction from the guard’s behaviour.

5. Scale of confidence and limits of the topic

Deductions about the past lie on a scale. Must have is close to certainty, can't have is close to ruling something out, and may have or might have merely allow for a possibility. The simple past presents an event as known.

Should have can express criticism, regret, or expectation; could have and might have can express an unrealized possibility or a supposition about an unknown result. Here we are comparing specifically the strength of the deduction expressed through must have, may/might have, and can’t have.

How to build it

must have (almost certainly happened) | may / might have (possibly happened) | can't have (almost certainly did not happen)

The signal may have failed, but the log is empty, so it must have been the cable.

The signal may have failed, but the log is empty, so it must have been the cable.

A weaker guess and a stronger deduction in one sentence.

The hall was already full at seven, so the doors can't have opened late.

The hall was already full at seven, so the doors can't have opened late.

The full hall gives the speaker a basis for a confident deduction; whether that basis is sufficient depends on the opening time and other circumstances.

6. Register and intensifiers

In speech and informal writing, contractions are common: must've, can't have, couldn't have. In formal writing, write the full forms, often with cannot have. An adverb specifies the deduction: must surely have, must presumably have.

A negative deduction can be strengthened with an adverb: cannot possibly have, cannot conceivably have. This intensifier goes between the modal and have, does not change the form, and adds emphasis.

How to build it

modal verb + (adverb) + have + V3; parentheses indicate an optional element

verb / V
—
A word for an action or state, such as work or be. The pattern determines its form.
V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.
adverb
—
A word adding information about an action, quality or circumstance: slowly, very, often.
modal
—
A modal verb expresses meanings such as ability, possibility or necessity: can, may, must.

The author cannot possibly have read the final draft.

The author cannot possibly have read the final draft.

A formal, intensified deduction.

The signatory must presumably have received the notice by post.

The signatory must presumably have received the notice by post.

Presumably indicates that the deduction is based on an assumption.

7. When a deduction is inappropriate

When you simply need to report a directly established fact, the past tense is usually the most direct choice. Must have instead marks a deduction or reconstruction. Its appropriateness depends on what the speaker is trying to assert, not on whether the speaker was formally a witness.

Also distinguish a deduction about the past from a deduction about the present. Must be and must be -ing refer to what is happening now, while must have + V3 refers to an earlier time. The time reference is decisive in the sentence.

How to build it

must be (now) | must have + V3 (earlier)

V3 / past participle
—
The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.

I watched her lock the office at six.

I watched her lock the office at six.

The speaker directly reports an action they witnessed. This alone does not prove that nobody remained inside.

He must be home by now; the lights are on.

He must be home by now; the lights are on.

A deduction about a present state, not a past event.

Common mistakes

Incorrect:They must been exhausted after the climb.

Correct:They must have been exhausted after the climb.

After a modal, have is required; must been does not have a perfect form.

Incorrect:The test must of failed.

Correct:The test must have failed.

Must of results from the pronunciation of must've; grammatically, have is required.

Incorrect:They can't had finished yet.

Correct:They can't have finished yet.

After a modal, the bare infinitive have is used, not had.

Incorrect:He must have went home early.

Correct:He must have gone home early.

After have, the past participle gone is required, not the simple past went.

Incorrect:The door can't have be opened from outside.

Correct:The door can't have been opened from outside.

The passive requires been, not be.

Sources
Practise with Vocairo