Be likely to for probability
What likely means: assessing probability
The adjective likely says that an event is more likely to happen than not, but the speaker does not promise that it will happen. This is an assessment of the chances, not a statement about a settled decision or a schedule, so likely lies between “possible” and “certain.”
The personal construction consists of a subject, a form of be, the adjective likely, the function word to, and the base form of the verb. The subject agrees with be (is/are), while the verb after to does not change for person, tense, or number.
subject + be likely to + base form
- subject / S —
- The grammatical subject: who or what the clause is about; the verb agrees with it. In The book was written, the book is the subject, although someone else does the action.
- V1 / base form —
- The base verb without to: work, go, be.
The new tenants are likely to stay for years.
The new tenants are likely to stay for years.
Assessment: more likely than not; there is no guarantee.
Heavy traffic is likely to slow the delegation down.
Heavy traffic is likely to slow the delegation down.
The subject is singular; the base form slow follows to.
Maria is likely to accept the position, but she hasn't replied yet.
Maria is likely to accept the position, but she hasn't replied yet.
There is still no reply, so the speaker is only assessing the probability. Maria may already have made a decision without communicating it.
Impersonal pattern: it is likely that
The same assessment can begin with the impersonal it. The adjective is then followed by a full clause with its own subject and verb, not an infinitive: it is likely that + subject + verb. In conversation, that is often omitted.
The future modal verb in the clause (will) expresses that the event is still ahead. For assumptions about the present or past, the clause uses the appropriate tense. A special case is weather sentences: it is likely to snow, where it is a dummy subject and an infinitive follows the adjective.
It is likely (that) + subject + verb
- subject / S —
- The grammatical subject: who or what the clause is about; the verb agrees with it. In The book was written, the book is the subject, although someone else does the action.
- verb / V —
- A word for an action or state, such as work or be. The pattern determines its form.
It is likely that the committee will postpone the vote.
It is likely that the committee will postpone the vote.
The clause has its own subject, the committee.
It's likely the tickets will sell out within hours.
It's likely the tickets will sell out within hours.
The word that is omitted; the meaning is the same.
It is likely to snow overnight.
It is likely to snow overnight.
Weather it is a dummy subject; an infinitive follows likely.
Unlikely and not likely: low probability
Unlikely or not likely expresses low probability: She is unlikely to come. Do not mechanically add not to the next verb. She is unlikely not to come is also grammatical, but it means something different: it is unlikely that she will not come.
Unlikely means “low chances,” not “impossible.” Therefore, such sentences work well with a qualification: the probability is low, but it has not been completely ruled out.
The CEO is unlikely to resign this year.
The CEO is unlikely to resign this year.
A personal construction with unlikely.
It is unlikely that the road will reopen before spring.
It is unlikely that the road will reopen before spring.
An impersonal pattern with a full clause.
She isn't likely to change her mind.
She isn't likely to change her mind.
Not likely is an equivalent, slightly more conversational form.
Degree of probability: intensifiers and comparisons
The strength of the assessment can be changed with words before likely or unlikely: very, highly, quite, fairly, extremely. The compound forms more likely and less likely compare chances, while far or much before them intensify the difference; the second participant in the comparison is introduced with than.
Likely can also be an adverb: The talks will likely continue tomorrow. This use is especially common in American English; very likely and most likely are more widely used. Here, the main focus is on adjective constructions with be.
It is highly likely that prices will fall.
It is highly likely that prices will fall.
The intensifier comes before likely.
Smaller firms are far more likely to close during a recession.
Smaller firms are far more likely to close during a recession.
Far intensifies more likely; the meaning is comparative.
The second candidate is less likely to get the job.
The second candidate is less likely to get the job.
Less likely weakens the assessment.
The talks will most likely continue tomorrow.
The talks will most likely continue tomorrow.
The adverb likely with most.
The infinitive gives a time clue: be + -ing and have + V3
After likely to, a simple form is not the only possibility. To be + -ing describes a process at the relevant time, while to have + V3 describes an event before the selected time boundary. In the examples below, that boundary is the present.
Tense is determined by the whole context, not by the word likely or the infinitive alone. She was likely to be working at noon refers to noon in the past; She is likely to have finished by Friday may predict completion by the future Friday.
be likely to be + V-ing | be likely to have + V3
- verb / V —
- A word for an action or state, such as work or be. The pattern determines its form.
- V3 / past participle —
- The third verb form: worked, gone, seen. Used after have/has or in the passive, for example; it is not always the same as V2.
- V-ing / -ing —
- The verb form ending in -ing: working, going. Its role depends on the construction.
The auditors are likely to be reviewing the accounts right now.
The auditors are likely to be reviewing the accounts right now.
Progressive infinitive: the process is happening now.
The thief is likely to have entered through the window.
The thief is likely to have entered through the window.
Perfect infinitive: the event has already happened.
She's likely to have forgotten the appointment.
She's likely to have forgotten the appointment.
Have + the third form forgotten.
Questions and short answers
In a general question, be moves to the beginning: Is the bridge likely to reopen? The auxiliary do is not needed. To assess chances, there is also the pattern how likely is it that + clause, where the clause already has normal word order.
A short answer repeats be: Yes, it is. / No, it isn't. To express caution, add words such as probably not or I'm not sure.
Is the bridge likely to reopen before winter?
Is the bridge likely to reopen before winter?
Be comes before the subject, followed by likely to.
How likely is it that the supplier will agree?
How likely is it that the supplier will agree?
The question has the order How likely is it…? After that, the word order is normal: the supplier will agree.
Are you likely to move this year? — Probably not.
Are you likely to move this year? — Probably not.
A short answer without repeating the verb.
Boundaries: probability, possibility, and certainty
Likely expresses the assessment “probable,” while possible merely allows for a possibility. Be bound to may sound more certain, while be due to refers to a scheduled time. None of these constructions guarantees the result by itself.
The word probable has a similar meaning, but it does not take a to-infinitive: it is correct to say it is probable that …, but the result is likely to …. Use likely with a personal subject and an infinitive.
It is possible that she will resign, but it is not likely.
It is possible that she will resign, but it is not likely.
Possible is weaker than likely.
She might call tonight, but she is more likely to send a message.
She might call tonight, but she is more likely to send a message.
Might merely allows for the possibility; more likely ranks the alternatives.
It is probable that the court will reject the appeal.
It is probable that the court will reject the appeal.
For this meaning, probable combines with the impersonal pattern it is probable that. It also has other adjective uses, for example a probable cause.
The court is likely to reject the appeal.
The court is likely to reject the appeal.
For a personal subject with an infinitive, use likely.
Common mistakes
Incorrect:The airline is likely to cancelling the route.
Correct:The airline is likely to cancel the route.
The base form, not -ing, follows to.
Incorrect:It is likely the bank to refuse the loan.
Correct:It is likely that the bank will refuse the loan.
After the impersonal It is likely, this transformation requires a full sentence with that: that the bank will refuse. Another correct option is The bank is likely to refuse the loan.
Incorrect:Our manager is likely that he will approve the budget.
Correct:Our manager is likely to approve the budget.
With a personal subject, use to + the base form; a that-clause is needed only after impersonal it.
Incorrect:The result is probable to surprise us.
Correct:The result is likely to surprise us.
Probable does not take a to-infinitive; likely is needed for this construction.
Incorrect:The team is likely to will lose the final.
Correct:The team is likely to lose the final.
The base form lose is required after to; the modal will does not combine with it here. Tense is determined by the context because likely to is not limited to the future.
Incorrect:Is likely that the lift will be repaired by noon.
Correct:It is likely that the lift will be repaired by noon.
Without the dummy subject it, the sentence is incomplete.